Impact of Public Safely Thmes on Presidential Approval

Abstract

One of the main problems that developíng countries face is the increasing presence of organized crime; a presence that,in many cases, has weakened the structure of the State. Some govenments choose to combat these illegal organizations while others decide to either ignore them or collude with them. We would expect that, as it occurs with any other public policy, the governmental decisions to fígh t organizced crímc would grcaily depend on thc anticipated response of public Opinión to this type of public policy. Unlike other determinats —the economy, for instance— iew studies have been done on the effects of anti-crime policies on the assessment of presidents. Using data from the LAPOP 2010 survey for the case of México, I study the impact ofseveral dimensions of the public safecy themeon presidential approval. I find that che assessment ofpublic safecy perfomance has an important impact on approval. On che other hand, 1 aiso flnd that public support for a specific approach to fighting crime, die quasi-dircct effect gcncrated by lack of safecy, and the percepción of public safecy as che central probiem, have a relaciveiy lower —but none theless meaningful— impact on approval. It was somewhat surprising not to discover meaningful effeccs on approval from victims of crime or persons who fear insecurity