Contextual Factors, Long Term Predispositions and Electoral Accountability in Argentina in Times of Kirchnerismo

Abstract

The troubled path of Argentine democracy resumed its normal course in 2003 after the elections that brought Néstor Kirchner to the Presidency of the nation. While Kirchner garnered less than twenty-five percent of the vote, four years later, his wife Cristina Kirchner won the presidential election with a strong electoral support, doubling the figures achieved in 2003. What led the electorate to support both presidents in each election? Did the political and socio-economic context influence the reasons for voting? What was the weight of the retrospective voting in both elections? Data from opinion polls that have been analyzed using logistic regression and the calculation of predicted probabilities indicate that the retrospective vote was stronger in 2007, year in which the electoral offer was more stable, elections were concurrent, and was raised as a scenario of presidential pseudo-reelection. The persistent alliance between the low working class with the “justicialistas” candidates was confirmed once again and proved higher in 2003, when unemployment hit the lower classes the hardest. At the same time, ideology does not explain the support for Cristina Kirchner, while support for Néstor Kirchner rose as voters moved rightward in the ideological scale.