Guatemala 2023: Political Crisis, Attacks on Electoral Integrity and Prospects for Democracy
Keywords:
democratic erosion, Guatemala, presidential elections, electoral integrityAbstract
During 2023, Guatemala faced a political crisis marked by three critical moments that threatened democratic stability. The process of democratic weakening intensified during the general elections with the exclusion of prominent opposition candidates under fabricated accusations. Additionally, the Public Ministry attempted to suspend the legal status of the Semilla party before the second round, and accusations of fraud were leveled against Semilla by nine parties affiliated with the ruling coalition. These actions jeopardized democracy, triggering widespread international condemnation and intervention by the Organization of American States. Despite Arévalo’s overwhelming victory in the second round, new attempts by the Public Ministry to reverse the election results in the post-election stage have raised doubts about a peaceful transfer of power. However, these attacks on electoral integrity by actors in the government served as catalysts for citizen’s collective action in defense of the electoral results. In tandem with careful international support for the pro-democratic coalition, these citizen-led initiatives successfully thwarted further democratic backsliding. This essay aims to outline the primary attacks on electoral integrity observed during the general elections, identify institutional factors contributing to electoral uncertainty, and reflect on the future of democracy in Guatemala.
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