Cycles of Electoral Democracy in Latin America, 1900-2000
Keywords:
democratization, elections, cycles of democracy, Latin AmericaAbstract
This article explores and identifies long-term patterns of political change in Latin America.Time-series analysis revealed the apparent existence of a "domino effect" throughwhich democratization in Country X would increase the likelihood of similar change inneighboring countries Y and Z. The study also found considerable support for the idea thatprior experience with democracy would increase the probability of subsequent experiencewith democracy and that a single prior experience would establish a sufficient basis for democratic restoration. Such findings make a crucial point: Factors promoting democratizationin Latin America tended to be internal to the region, rather than external.
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