Flujos de capital, tipos de cambio fijos y supervivencia política: México y Argentina, 1994-1995
Abstract
Rising world interest rates and declining investor confidence in both Mexico and Argentina threatened the survival of fixed exchange rates in each of these countries during 1994 and 1995. Facing these common pressures, Mexico was unable to protect its fixed-rule exchange rate regime, yet Argentina successfully preserved its fixed rate of exchange. Why this difference? This paper argues that explanations based on electoral cycles, timing, and economic fundamentals are illuminating but insufficient to explain the differing capacity of the Mexican and Argentine governments to preserve their fixed exchange rates. A more complete explanation is instead found in the divergent structures of the electoral coalitions backing each government and the electoral environment within which each operated. This finding implies that fixed rates of exchange will be sustainable politically, particularly in democratic or democratizing settings, only under very particular circumstances.
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