Retrospective Economic Perceptions and Vote for the Incumbent, 1994-2012
Keywords:
economic retrospective vote, Mexico, party identity, economic perceptions, incumbent party, perceptions of riskAbstract
Electoral preferences radically changed between 1994 and 2012. Based on surveys taken from voters as they left the polling place, this article analyzes the relationship between the voter’s perception of change in the economic situation and preference for the incumbent party in this period. Economic retrospective vote is one feature of voter’s behavior widely present, of a small magnitude and almost constant in all elections, except in moments of big economic changes. The effect of economic perceptions on the vote for the incumbent party is of a limited magnitude, because voter’s party identification mediates this relationship between perceptions and vote.
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