Fulfilling presidential promises: The Case of Chile, 1990-2017
Keywords:
fulfilling presidential promises; accountability; presidential state of the nation address; presidential pledges; Chile.Abstract
Once elected, authorities fail to fulfill some campaign pledges. Since making promises represents a commitment that carries cost when unfulfilled, authorities should not make post-campaign promises that they might not fulfill. Based on the literature on the determinants of fulfilling campaign pledges, we expand the discussion to the determinants of promises made by presidents in office and propose 4 hypotheses that account for their fulfillment. To test the hypotheses, we collected information on the 945 pledges made by presidents in the 28 annual speeches to Congress in Chile between 1990 and 2017 and on the fulfillment of those promises as laws promulgated. Presidents fulfill more promises made in their first year and fewer when they are made in the last year in office. Less strongly, a higher seat share support in the legislature and higher presidential approval explain a higher pledge fulfillment rate. Presidents also fulfill more promises on areas where they political parties exercise issue ownership. Though presidential promises do not aspire to win votes, their fulfillment rate reflects the importance that Presidents given to their pledges and depends on the political process and institutional setup.
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